THIBAUD HENNET

vendredi 6 févr. 2026, 16:00 → 17:00 Europe/Paris

Maurice Fréchet (ex salle 05) (IHP)

The 2021 energy crisis reignited inflation in Europe to levels unseen in decades and laid bare the fragility of its energy supply. Within a single year, electricity prices tripled or even quadrupled across several European countries. Using detailed supply and demand curve data from the Spanish electricity market, this paper estimates shifts in supply and demand driven by a range of natural shocks that are exogenous to market conditions. I show that conventional supply (respectively demand) shifters also embed a significant demand (respectively supply) component, complicating their use for identification. I therefore construct synthetic supply and demand instruments and demonstrate that they outperform standard shifters in estimating price elasticities of supply and demand. These identified shocks are then used in a proxy-SVAR framework to estimate the transmission of electricity supply and demand shocks to inflation and industrial production. Finally, I evaluate the effects of the Iberian exception—introduced to shield Spanish firms and consumers from energy-driven inflation—and find that this policy reduced inflation by 3.35 percentage points in a counterfactual scenario.