Séminaire MAD-Stat

Final Size and Partial Distance Estimate for a Two-Group SEIRD Model

by Mr Matheus Santos (Instituto Nacional de Matemática Pura e Aplicada - Rio de Janeiro)

Europe/Paris
Auditorium 4 - 1st floor (Toulouse School of Economics)

Auditorium 4 - 1st floor

Toulouse School of Economics

Description

In this paper we consider a SEIRD epidemic model for a population composed by two groups of individuals with asymmetric interaction. Given an approximate solution for the two-group model, we estimate the error of this approximation to the unknown solution to the second group based on the known error that the approximation has with respect to the solution to the first group. We also study the final size of the epidemic for each group. We illustrate our results with the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in the New York County (USA) for the initial stage of the contamination, and in the cities of Petrolina and Juazeiro (Brazil).