It is well known that Earth's climatic characteristics have undergone significant variations throughout the planet's history. Even today, we are witnessing increasingly rapid and intense climate changes, likely driven by human intervention for the first time in Earth's history. But how can we determine what Earth's temperature was a thousand, ten thousand, one hundred thousand years ago, or even further back in time?
A very useful tool for studying paleoclimate is the analysis of ancient ice layers—though even these repositories of planetary history are becoming increasingly scarce. How can we infer information about the planet's overall temperature from measurements necessarily confined to specific regions and time intervals?
Mathematicians studying the climate strive to answer such questions. Naturally, this requires a well-formulated model: not excessively complex so that it can be analyzed theoretically, but sufficiently calibrated to capture the most salient features of climate dynamics.
In this talk, we will explore how energy balance models can be used for this purpose. These models, introduced in the 1960s by Russian and American researchers to study the effects of the so-called nuclear winter, reveal secrets of Earth's distant past and help us understand the potential impacts of changes in specific climatic agents, such as solar radiation or the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, on the climate of tomorrow.